Researchers have identified nearly 166,000 square kilometers of coral reef capable of surviving climate change — three times more than earlier estimates — raising cautious hope for one of the world's most threatened marine ecosystems, according to a study published Tuesday.
The findings, reported by Reuters, draw on an analysis of 45,000 coral surveys combined with decades of climate and ocean data. Scientists mapped climate-resilient reefs across 71 countries and 100 territories, including areas of the Caribbean and the Pacific and Atlantic oceans not previously recognized as candidates for long-term survival.
Coral reefs support roughly a quarter of all marine life but have suffered severe damage in recent years from tropical storms, pollution and mass bleaching events driven by rising ocean temperatures. Some scientists have warned the ecosystems face irreversible decline.
"Coral reefs are often framed as ecosystems beyond saving," said Emily Darling, director of coral conservation at the Wildlife Conservation Society and one of the report's authors. "This research shows otherwise: we know where the hope is and what we need now is political will."
The research comes as governments worldwide are developing action plans under the so-called "30 by 30" framework — a target to place 30% of land and marine environments under formal protection by 2030. Darling said only 28% of reefs currently fall within protected areas, and she pointed to a looming super El Niño event as further reason for urgency.
Co-author Stacy Jupiter, executive director of the WCS's Global Marine Program, said the data could help governments direct limited conservation funding toward reefs with the strongest chances of recovery.
"In certain cases, where reefs are below certain benchmarks for ecosystem function, it may be a case of triage, where we may need to leave those places," Jupiter said, according to Reuters.
The study offers a potential tool for policymakers as international negotiations over marine conservation continue ahead of the COP30 climate summit.
